Tag Archives: Økonomi

Krisens vigtigste spørgsmål

Tony Barber fra Financial Times stiller krisens vigtigste spørgsmål her: Can stability be restored without a popular mandate?

The sidelining of elected politicians in the continent that exported democracy to the world was, in its way, as momentous a development as this week’s debt market turmoil. In effect, eurozone policymakers have decided to suspend politics as normal in two countries because they judge it to be a mortal threat to Europe’s monetary union. They have ruled that European unity, a project more than 50 years in the making, is of such overriding importance that politicians accountable to the people must give way to unelected experts who can keep the show on the road. (hat tip ham her)

Rune Lykkeberg er inde på lidt af det samme i weekendens Information her. Hvad er vi parate til at opgive for vækst og velstand?

Pointen er ikke, at vi i Vesten vinder den globale konkurrence, fordi vi tiltrækker dem, der er frie nok til selv at vælge, hvor og hvordan de vil leve. Pointen er derimod, at man ikke har vundet det gode liv, bare fordi man vinder i den globale konkurrence. Og at dem, der følger pengene og gør økonomisk vækst til det eneste mål, ender i det, der engang blev kaldt kapitalismens jernbur — og som ingen ønsker at leve i.

Indeed.

Hvorfor Obama har skuffet os

Johann Hari i The Independent. Jeg er enig i meget. Selvfølgelig ligger der kæmpe problemer i USA’s politisk-økonomiske sponsorsystem (‘legalized bribery’, som Hari kalder det). Men at fuldstændig fratage Obama selv skylden for hans manglende evne til at udnytte den helt enestående position, han var i ved valgsejren i 2008, er efter min mening at gå for langt. Obama høster lige nu frugterne af manglende politisk mod til at gennemføre de løfter om ‘foranding’, han  byggede sin kampagne på. Hvis jeg var amerikaner, ville jeg stadig stemme på ham. Men kun fordi der ikke var noget bedre alternativ.

For two years now, most of the good and honorable people who desperately wanted him to beat John McCain – as I did –have watched his actions through a distorting haze of hoping for the best. So when Obama set us all up for another global crash by refusing to reregulate the banks or stop even their riskiest practices, we looked away. When Obama set us all up for more terror attacks by trebling the troops in Afghanistan and launching a vicious air war on Pakistan that is swelling the ranks of jihadis, we didn’t want to hear it. When Obama set us all up for environmental disaster by refusing to put the brakes on his country’s unprecedented and unmatched emissions of climate-destabilizing gases, we switched over to watch will.i.am’s YouTube rejig of the President’s “yes, we can” speech. And when a week from now he is beaten at the mid-term elections – after having so little to show the American people – by a group of even more irrational Republicans, we will weep for him.

(…)

I’m sure Obama believes he is doing the best he can in a corrupt system – but it’s not true. There is another way. Imagine if, when he came to office, he had articulated the real solutions – and, when he was blocked, named the corrupt corporations and the corrupt Senators stopping him getting healthcare for sick children or preventing another crash. Explain that it is time to drive the money-lenders out of the temple of American democracy. Tell the American people they will always be screwed over until they end this corruption and pay for the democratic process themselves, and propose serious measures to achieve it. Call for a mass movement to back him, just as Franklin Roosevelt did – and succeeded. At least then there would be a possibility of real progress. Would the outcome conceivably have been worse than this – being beaten by the foaming Tea Party Republicans with almost nothing to show for it?

At moments, there have been flickers of what this alternative Obama Presidency would have looked like. His huge government bailout of the auto industry kept millions of people in work, was hugely popular – and is already making a profit for the government. In the final days of this election campaign, he is railing against the massive corporate donations to the Republicans – a hypocrisy, for sure, but a popular one, pointing to a better path he might have chosen, and still could, if enough sane Americans shake themselves awake and pressure him hard.

Yes, on the night Obama won, I too felt that great global ripple of hope, and shed a little tear – but the people weeping today are those having their homes repossessed in the Rust Belt and their homes blown to pieces in the SWAT Valley as a direct result of Obama’s decisions. They are the ones who deserve our empathy now, not the most powerful man in the world, who has chosen to settle into and defend a profoundly corrupt system, rather than challenge and change it. It’s long past time to put away your Obama t-shirt that and take out your protest banner.

Det hele her

Forsvar for socialdemokratiet

Den store Tony Judt (1948-2010) i et essay fra sidste år om de europæiske socialdemokratiers historiske udfordringer i disse år.

Historikeren Judt, af Timothy Garton Ash helt rigtigt kaldt en spectateur engagé (en politisk engageret, men uafhængig og kritisk intellektuel), trækker tråde helt tilbage til økonomerne John Maynard Keynes og Friedrich Hayek og frem til de europæiske socialdemokratiers krise i disse år.

Undervejs diskuterer Judt bl.a. effektivitetsmyten om privatiseringen af offentlige institutioner, den irrationelle amerikanske frygt for enhver form for statsindgreb i samfundet og det, Judt betegner som den økonomiske diskurs’ fuldstændige overtagelse af den måde, vi taler om vores samfund på. Istedet for at tale om, hvorvidt noget er ‘godt’ eller ‘dårligt’, taler vi istedet om hvorvidt det er ‘effektivt’ eller ‘nytterigt’. Og det er et tab, mener Judt, fordi det udelukker os fra en række helt centrale spørgsmål:

What precisely is it that we find abhorrent in financial capitalism, or “commercial society” as the eighteenth century had it? What do we find instinctively amiss in our present arrangements and what can we do about them? What do we find unfair? What is it that offends our sense of propriety when faced with unrestrained lobbying by the wealthy at the expense of everyone else? What have we lost?

De spørgsmål må konfronteres i den tid, vi nu bevæger os ud i. En situation, vi har set magen til før, argumenterer Judt:

We are entering, I believe, a new age of insecurity. The last such era, memorably analyzed by Keynes in ‘The Economic Consequences of the Peace’ (1919), followed decades of prosperity and progress and a dramatic increase in the internationalization of life: “globalization” in all but name. As Keynes describes it, the commercial economy had spread around the world. Trade and communication were accelerating at an unprecedented rate. Before 1914, it was widely asserted that the logic of peaceful economic exchange would triumph over national self-interest. No one expected all this to come to an abrupt end. But it did.

We too have lived through an era of stability, certainty, and the illusion of indefinite economic improvement. But all that is now behind us. For the foreseeable future we shall be as economically insecure as we are culturally uncertain. We are assuredly less confident of our collective purposes, our environmental well-being, or our personal safety than at any time since World WarII. We have no idea what sort of world our children will inherit, but we can no longer delude ourselves into supposing that it must resemble our own in reassuring ways.

We must revisit the ways in which our grandparents’ generation responded to comparable challenges and threats. Social democracy in Europe, the New Deal, and the Great Society here in the US were explicit responses to the insecurities and inequities of the age. Few in the West are old enough to know just what it means to watch our world collapse. We find it hard to conceive of a complete breakdown of liberal institutions, an utter disintegration of the democratic consensus. But it was just such a breakdown that elicited the Keynes–Hayek debate and from which the Keynesian consensus and the social democratic compromise were born: the consensus and the compromise in which we grew up and whose appeal has been obscured by its very success.

If social democracy has a future, it will be as a social democracy of fear. Rather than seeking to restore a language of optimistic progress, we should begin by reacquainting ourselves with the recent past. The first task of radical dissenters today is to remind their audience of the achievements of the twentieth century, along with the likely consequences of our heedless rush to dismantle them.

The left, to be quite blunt about it, has something to conserve. It is the right that has inherited the ambitious modernist urge to destroy and innovate in the name of a universal project. Social democrats, characteristically modest in style and ambition, need to speak more assertively of past gains. The rise of the social service state, the century-long construction of a public sector whose goods and services illustrate and promote our collective identity and common purposes, the institution of welfare as a matter of right and its provision as a social duty: these were no mean accomplishments.

That these accomplishments were no more than partial should not trouble us. If we have learned nothing else from the twentieth century, we should at least have grasped that the more perfect the answer, the more terrifying its consequences. Imperfect improvements upon unsatisfactory circumstances are the best that we can hope for, and probably all we should seek. Others have spent the last three decades methodically unraveling and destabilizing those same improvements: this should make us much angrier than we are. It ought also to worry us, if only on prudential grounds: Why have we been in such a hurry to tear down the dikes laboriously set in place by our predecessors? Are we so sure that there are no floods to come?

Tænk hvis der fandtes politikere, der intellektuelt var i stand til at formulere den slags tanker og ideer.

Looting Main Street

Tilbage fra ferie og dertilhørende sommerforkølelse kan man altid lune sig med hjertevarme fortællinger fra den finansielle verden. Rolling Stone (magasinet, ikke bandet) har dykket ned i pølen med swaps, offentlige låneventyr og generel grådighed at large. Resultatet er Looting Main Street, en glimrende artikel om finanskrisens hædersmænd. Med udgangspunkt i et meget stort kloaksystem i en meget lille by i Alabama giver artiklen storartet et bredt indblik i de skrupelløse investeringer og direkte kriminelle handlinger, der var med til at køre den vestlige økonomi i sænk:

In 1996, the average monthly sewer bill for a family of four in Birmingham was only $14.71 — but that was before the county decided to build an elaborate new sewer system with the help of out-of-state financial wizards with names like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase. The result was a monstrous pile of borrowed money that the county used to build, in essence, the world’s grandest toilet — “the Taj Mahal of sewer-treatment plants” is how one county worker put it. What happened here in Jefferson County would turn out to be the perfect metaphor for the peculiar alchemy of modern oligarchical capitalism: A mob of corrupt local officials and morally absent financiers got together to build a giant device that converted human shit into billions of dollars of profit for Wall Street — and misery for people like Lisa Pack.

Via ham her

Meningsfuld nødhjælp

Aid Watch skriver om nødvendigheden af at sikre at nødhjælp til verdens fattige rent faktisk hjælper. De fattige, that is. Og ikke kun den rige verdens samvittighed.

I en ny blogpost argumenterer økonomiprofessoren og udviklingseksperten  William Easterly for princippet, at hvad der ikke giver mening i international handel heller ikke bør give mening i international nødhjælp. Nødhjælp skal give mening, skriver han. Og kommer med et par eksempler:

Don’t trade low value items with huge transport costs. No exporter or importer in their right mind would ship bulky low-value items large distances, which is why things like construction materials are often locally-sourced. Aid examples: Nobody wants your old shoes1 million shirts.

Don’t send coals to Newcastle. Nobody exports food to a food-abundant region. Well nobody but US food aid, which ships food from Nebraska to the Horn of Africa, when there is plenty of food already in the region (it’s just badly distributed inside the region, which is what wise food aid could correct).

Don’t do dumping; it is illegal. Exporters are not supposed to charge a much lower price abroad than they do domestically, driving local producers out of business – that’s called dumping, and it’s illegal under WTO rules. Wait, unless the dumper is USAID and it’s called food aid. Actually, US food aid violates all of these first three principles.

Do export goods intensive in abundant resources; don’t export goods intensive in scarce resources. Many aid projects designed to promote poor country exports in a promising product violate this rule when they make the project dependent on the scarce and expensive resource called International Expertise. Small-scale handicraft projects heavily dependent on foreign experts are particularly gross violators.

Actually, ANY aid project should be designed to maximize use of abundant resources and minimize use of scarce resources. This is one of the defects of the Millennium Village approach – it’s intensive in the use of expensive foreign expertise, and so is not scalable.

The most gains from trade come when something is cheap in the exporting country and expensive in the importing country. Thank goodness the US does not try to grow its own bananas at some enormous expense, when they are cheaply bought from Central America and Colombia. Antibiotics can be cheaply made in rich countries but would be very expensive to produce in African countries, which is why aid projects that provide antibiotics cheaply make a lot of sense (actually private trade in antibiotics happens for the same reason, but doesn’t reach the poorest of the poor). Antiretroviral drugs, unfortunately, are expensive in the exporting country, so they are not as good an aid deal as antibiotics.

Det er gode pointer. Den efterfølgende diskussion modificerer nogle af blogpostens eksempler, men over all står det vejledende princip klart: Nødhjælp skal give mening – både fra et modtagerperspektiv og et handelsperspektiv.

Den anden side af Sydafrika

Midt i VM-festen, mellem kampene (der, lets face it, for de flestes vedkommende har været rimelig kedelige) eller ind imellem de talrige analyser og kommentarer om Bendtners lyske og Jon Dahls manglende mål, synes jeg man kommer til at savne baggrundsviden om det land, hele VM-spektaklet udspiller sig i: Sydafrika.

Jeg savner simpelthen en kritisk vinkel eller bare nogle bagomgående reportager fra et land, der indtil for 16 år siden var et racistisk white supremacy-diktatur. Hvor er landet i dag? Hvordan er forholdet mellem landets to befolkningsgrupper, de hvide og de sorte? Hvordan er landets mentalitet? Kan det virkelig være sandt, som TV2’s egen Ulla Terkelsen rapporterede fra et smukt instrueret PR-stunt, at VM bare sådan har bragt hele nationen sammen om utvetydig støtte til Bafana Bafana? Næppe.

Men jeg synes jeg leder forgæves i danske medier. Så er det jo heldigt at vi har goe gamle Economist. I deres nummer op til Verdensmesterskabet (som jeg først har fået tid til at sætte tænderne i nu) dækker magasinet netop alle de vinkler på Sydafrika, som de danske medier overser.  Fra landets økonomiske situation, der ikke er så god som den på overfladen kunne se ud, til ANCs poltiske styre med præsident Zuma i spidsen, som magasinet (forventeligt, The Economists liberale hældning taget i betragtning) hylder for at videreføre en markedsvenlig omend lettere enevældig politik.

Som magasinet skriver:

South Africa is a land of contrasts. It has fabulous mineral wealth, with 90% of the world’s known platinum reserves, 80% of its manganese, 70% of its chrome and 40% of its gold, as well as rich coal deposits; yet 43% of its population live on less than $2 a day. It has just announced plans to develop a satellite programme (with India and Brazil) and is the leading candidate to host the world’s biggest science project, the Square Kilometre Array radio telescope; yet in international maths, science and reading tests it performs abysmally. It has sky-high unemployment yet at the same time suffers from crippling skills shortages. It was the first country to perform a heart transplant, and some of its doctors are still among the best anywhere; yet its people’s health record is among the world’s worst. And, leaving aside war zones, it is one of the most violent and crime-ridden countries on the planet. This special report will look at South Africa the way that most of its people see it. The results are often harsh.

Det er god læsning. Og et rart, kritisk afbræk fra skriblerierne om uheldige selvmål, umulige bolde og døve og meget stædige landstrænere.

Europas gæld

Strålende og stor artikel fra Der Spiegel her om Europas gældssætning, mulige fremtid og lurende kollaps. Bare rolig, den er oversat til engelsk.

Artiklen starter i Grækenland, hvor den danske chefforhandler for IMF, Poul Thomsen, er i gang med at tvinge grækerne på en stram økonomisk hestekur. Men, som artiklen argumenterer, Grækenlands problemer kan meget hurtigt sprede sig og blive Europas.

Artiklen er lang, men kan såklart anbefales i sin helhed.

NU lysner det!

… well, hvis Warren siger det, må det være rigtigt:

Billionaire Warren Buffett says the economy is finally starting to show signs of significant improvement.

Berkshire Hathaway’s CEO told the Fox Business Network on Thursday that reports from his company’s roughly 80 subsidiaries showed a ”big upswing starting in March.”

Buffett says any improvement before last month had been slow, but March brought a real change, especially in the U.S. and Asia.

Så kommer Europa også snart! Ikke?

I østen stiger… siger The Economist

Det er en mærkelig ny og på en måde usikker ting at læse om: Fremtidsudsigterne for verdens økonomiske situation. Hvor de færreste synes at argumentere for vestens fortsatte dominans er langt de fleste økonomiske fremtidsforskere enige om, at fremtiden tilhører de udviklende markeder i Asien – navnlig Indien og Kina. Så langt så godt. Hvad der dog er større usikkerhed om, er, hvad den udvikling betyder for vesten – og her navnlig Europa, der i den nærmeste fremtid fortsat vil lide under langsom vækst, ufleksible arbejsmarkeder, en ældet befolkning og økonomisk stagnation.

Skal man tro evig optimistiske Economist så vil østens dominans – og altså ikke bare indenfor produktion og billig arbejdkraft men også indenfor innovation og kreativ udvikling – komme alle til gode. Østens befolkning vil få velfærds- og produktgoder, som det før kun var os i vesten der nød godt af. Og det er naturligvis kun ret og rimeligt. Men, skriver magasinet, også vesten vil få glæde af østens dominans. Fx vil de mange overlegne, billige produkter og services, de asiatiske virksomheder udvikler, også komme et løntrængt og (relativt) fattigere Europa til gode.

Hm. Det er vist at se glasset halvt fuldt. Som ung europæer (eller japaner eller amerikaner) er det i hvert fald svært ikke at læse sådanne fremtidsudsigter uden at føle sig en smule beklemt og usikker på fremtiden (se nedenstående undersøgelse).

Men også her har Economist svaret, tilsyneladende: Nøglestenen er at lære fra Østen. Innovation, udvikling og nye forretningsmetoder må hentes til Europa og inkorporeres i vores verden.

For mit eget felt, kommunikationsrådgivningen, er det en indtil videre fuldstændig uudforsket tilgang. Hvad kan vi lære af kineserne og inderne? Og hvordan kan vi bruge det i praksis? Ved vi overhovedet, hvordan PR-konsulenterne i de lande arbejder? Eller om de overhovedet arbejder- og i så fald på et så tilstrækkeligt avanceret niveau, der gør det værd at beskæftige sig med? Den, der først finder ud af det, vil utvivlsomt lede markedet indenfor de kommende år.

Magnatar-handlen

Fremragende stykke journalistik herPropublica! I en lang, gennemresearchet og velskrevet artikel gennemgår de to journalister, Jesse Eisinger og Jake Bernstein, de sidste hektiske boble-dage inden den store krise i 2008.

Artiklen handler om den såkaldte Magnatar Trade, hvor hedgefonden Magnatar formåede ikke bare at udnytte den lurende subprime lånekrise i USA men også at puste til den og forværre den for egen vindings skyld. Metoden var simpel og skruppelløs:

The hedge fund bought the riskiest portion of a kind of securities known as collateralized debt obligations — CDOs. If housing prices kept rising, this would provide a solid return for many years. But that’s not what hedge funds are after. They want outsized gains, the sooner the better, and Magnetar set itself up for a huge win: It placed bets that portions of its own deals would fail.

Alle de store banker var med i handlerne, der sikrede bankfolkene, der iværksatte dem, kæmpe store bonusser, men til sidst førte til bankernes fald.

Det er faktisk temmelig rystende læsning. Men også rystende god journalistik. Hvis det her er, hvad vi får, når aviserne dør, er jeg ikke synderlig bekymret.

Artiklen er lang, men læs det hele!

Hat tip ham her.