Salon poster en meget lang og meget udførlig artikel om Det Amerikanske Imperiums Opstigningen og Fald. Selvom de færreste vel tror på, at USA vil holde sin position som verdens førende magt for evigt (med mindre man er hardcore, overbevist patriot – eller amerikansk præsident), så argumenterer artiklen for at USAs fald fra både den økonomiske og militære tinder vil komme hurtigere end forventet. Måske allerede i 2020. Altså om ti år.
Artiklen opregner fire scenarier: Økonomisk Kollaps, En Olie- og Energikrise, Militært Nederlag, og endelig den ultimative World War III mod Kina – denne gang (optimistisk) uden en eneste dræbt eller tilskadekommen.
Scenarierne er langt ude i fremtiden, men ikke så langt ude i sine tankeeksperimenter. Se fx her om Amerikas økonomiske kollaps i 2020:
After years of swelling deficits fed by incessant warfare in distant lands, in 2020, as long expected, the U.S. dollar finally loses its special status as the world’s reserve currency. Suddenly, the cost of imports soars. Unable to pay for swelling deficits by selling now-devalued Treasury notes abroad, Washington is finally forced to slash its bloated military budget. Under pressure at home and abroad, Washington slowly pulls U.S. forces back from hundreds of overseas bases to a continental perimeter. By now, however, it is far too late.
Faced with a fading superpower incapable of paying the bills, China, India, Iran, Russia, and other powers, great and regional, provocatively challenge U.S. dominion over the oceans, space, and cyberspace. Meanwhile, amid soaring prices, ever-rising unemployment, and a continuing decline in real wages, domestic divisions widen into violent clashes and divisive debates, often over remarkably irrelevant issues. Riding a political tide of disillusionment and despair, a far-right patriot captures the presidency with thundering rhetoric, demanding respect for American authority and threatening military retaliation or economic reprisal. The world pays next to no attention as the American Century ends in silence.
mycorporateblog by kristoffer holm pedersen 